MB

 

Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: Weather and bird predictions


Status: Offline
Posts: 501
Date:
RE: Weather and bird predictions


Agree with Dave that there may well be something lurking out there to be found, especially as most of us are birding closer to home than may be the norm.  Dusky Warbler, Little Bunting or how about a Red Fkanked Bluetail?



__________________


Status: Offline
Posts: 448
Date:

Each year on BirdForum, a few of us make attempts at predicting medium-term weather that's beneficial to our hobby in the UK. Personally, I base it on extrapolations from Surface Pressure Charts (SPC), monitoring ocean temperatures, US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) and other sources

I try to be clear about what I predict, I don't mind being totally wrong, but I also try not to make crazy guesses beyond what will realistically happen. Sometimes I won't go beyond 2 days, sometimes up to 2 weeks ahead. The BBC tends to keep to 5 days, other sources give very over-ambitious forecasts up to 2 weeks - the science doesn't work that far ahead!

I try to add value, not repeat what can be found on BBC or Met websites - no point

The Met Office provides the following probability-based analysis, which also helps; it's for emergency planning, farmers, etc but can also give an idea of what birdlife may turn up

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index

I can't provide the BirdForum URL for 2021 - we haven't started it yet!

__________________


Status: Offline
Posts: 2841
Date:

Cant help wondering if a Dusky Warbler could be lurking undetected in Greater Manchester right now? Any other predictions for county rarities in 2021? Get out and find them before we all have to stay at home again!!

__________________


Status: Offline
Posts: 2841
Date:

With a few in the country already this month and large numbers already moving in to SE France, could 2018 be the year in which a twitchable Rose-Coloured Starling gets found in GM?

__________________


Status: Offline
Posts: 1023
Date:

Hi Dave,

For 2018 how about a species which has probably at least entered GM airspace in recent decades, but has never been definitely recorded, (at least as far as I am aware).

Bonapartes Gull can easily be passed over amongst hundreds of Black-headed Gulls unless observers are mindful of it as a possibility. GM has many suitable waters and very capable gull enthusiasts; - for those with less experience a good starting point when glassing through Black-headed gulls on your local water is to check bills as the prime starting point with a bird on the deck/ water; -  if you find one with a black bill take a good long look at it, it may be the start of something GOOD.

Happy Birding!



__________________

Challenges are inevitable, but failure is optional.



Status: Offline
Posts: 2841
Date:

Anybody have any predictions for birds in GM during 2018?

It would be nice if some of the Mealy Redpolls present in large numbers around the Baltic and in to Western Europe continue as far as us. Struggled to find any Redpolls during December and it would be nice to have a few flocks to sift through. Amazingly a Chinese-ringed Mealy Redpoll was controlled On Christmas Eve at Skagen Bird Observatory, Denmark.

How about Parrot Crossbill at Dovestones?

-- Edited by dave broome on Monday 1st of January 2018 06:46:40 PM

__________________


Status: Offline
Posts: 4038
Date:

I agree John, just not long enough in the right direction at the strength needed. Now the forecast is that it all switches round again so that the prospect of more eastern birds arriving on the East coast is likely. Wonder what goodies that will bring, everyone is praying for a Hawk Owl, but will one get over & where will it turn up?



__________________
facebook


Status: Offline
Posts: 448
Date:

Good call, though, Doc

There were 2 of us at Leasowe lifeguards: numerous Cormorants, ~10 Common Scoter, 2 Gannets, 1 Guillemot, Grey Plovers, Sanderlings, Oystercatchers, 1 Knot

Also many Dunlin & 4 Wigeon

Just needed the winds to have been more persistent WNW or NW

But no Petrels, Phalaropes, Albatrosses or Sheathbills, sadly

-- Edited by John Watson on Thursday 20th of October 2016 07:26:28 AM

__________________


Status: Offline
Posts: 4038
Date:

Well, just 2 Leach's Petrels materialised yesterday, 1 past Hoylake and 1 past Seacombe, still it's probably more than the rest of Autumn off the Wirral!!



__________________
facebook


Status: Offline
Posts: 4038
Date:

On Tuesday the BBC weather for New Brighton on the Wirral is showing winds in the afternoon of up to 50mph, very strong. These are blowing onto shore from the WNW, so not classic but there must be a chance of seabirds being blown in. The wind veers round to coming from the NW late afternoon but not as strong. It stays in this direction through Wednesday morning but weakening all the time. With this having been a very poor Leach's Petrel year on the Wirral it may be worth a punt at New Brighton or Leasowe Gunsites this week.



__________________
facebook


Status: Offline
Posts: 45
Date:

Big influx of northern hawk owl into southern Norway, apparently the birds appear restless suggesting low vole numbers. Norway has very few borders so there is undoubtedly more birds present than those reported. Couple that with a forecast of more easterlies and high pressure from mid week and I'd put a few quid on one making it to our shores before the autumn/winter is through. Anyone else want to have a go at guessing the next Mega??

__________________
Andrew & Cath


Status: Offline
Posts: 3491
Date:

pete berry wrote:

Looking at the pressure charts for next week we should be in for a run of south easterly winds from Monday till Friday.These winds are originating from quite a way across the continent and should produce a few Black Terns from Tuesday onwards,fingers crossed.


Sounds about reet ,I will be at work :(

 



__________________

http://www.flickr.com/photos/johntymon/



Status: Offline
Posts: 1206
Date:

Looking at the pressure charts for next week we should be in for a run of south easterly winds from Monday till Friday.These winds are originating from quite a way across the continent and should produce a few Black Terns from Tuesday onwards,fingers crossed.

__________________
Page 1 of 1  sorted by
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.

RODIS

 

This forum is dedicated to the memory of Eva Janice McKerchar.