I also thank John for bringing this issue into the arena.
There are many issues involved here, and it's all too easy to become pessimistic and even depressed regarding our estuarine birds.
On the positive side, let us not forgot that just 40 years ago it was considered inconceivable that an Osprey would stop over to catch Mullet in the Mersey,
or that Otters would be seen again at points along the river. The Mersey then was just a mass of pink foam, the river being no more than a toxic sewer.
Battles were won back in the late eighties when the threat to stop Woolston Eyes becoming just another landfill, Moore a dump for imported waste
and Risley Moss being closed for economy reasons, were averted.
Those battles may have been won, but the war goes on, a conflict between those that care for the environment and those that don't give a hoot about the natural world.
At the time of the fight to save the Eyes and Risley Moss, I recall trying to sell raffle tickets for the RSPB at work, and being shocked at the number of people who
refused to buy them because they had no interest in nature, many of them advising me to support local sports instead.
Political bodies and policy makers always have an eye on public opinion, and if they suspect only 48% or less of the electorate care about wildlife, then a proposed
controversial development is not far behind.
Love or hate Springwatch, the fact that Britain's wildlife is brought under the spotlight, has to be hugely benefical.
The Big Garden Birdwatch as now gone global, and reminds us that there are wild bird lovers in every corner of the globe.
Estuaries just don't get the same publicity, and we should take note of the lost battle to save Cardiff Bay.
When challenged about the effect on wading birds, the local council and developers simply said birds such as the Curlew were noisy, smelly things that spread disease,
and it as to be said many local people believed that too.
Thus the development went ahead, and we are fortunate that, to date, similar schemes for the Mersey and Ribble have not.
I have noted with concern articles written by local people in the press, not developers, that the Mersey, Ribble and Dee should all get a barrage, carrying a road link.
The enemies of those who love to watch mass flocks of Dunlin, are not just in parliament, council chambers and board rooms, but ordinary homes too.
With many of todays generation being little more that little box watchers and materialistic binge drinkers, there is an urgent need to promote our estuarine wildlife, now.
I can't recall any tv news item of late reporting the decline in our wading birds, perhaps it's time for the BBC to hold an outdoor Question Time from an estuary reserve
car park or centre.
Webcams, similar to those used in Springwatch, could beam live coverage of wader flocks, patrolling Peregrines and intrepid foxes to malls, coffee shops, pubs
and major business reception areas, so people could enjoy wildlife dramas whilst sitting in comfort well away from the mud.
Basically, I believe our estuaries and their birds need some good PR, and quick.
Firstly, thanks to John T for highlighting this report and also being a bit provocative in order to keep us on our toes . Thanks also to Bill M for pointing out some sources of more detailed information. Like Ian, I love real books (those old-fashioned things with ink on paper!) and eagerly await my copy of the report, but if you want the facts and figures they're all there online (just follow links on Bill's post).
The figures that John posted show the ten year changes but, for some species, the declines are even worse as many wintering wader populations were at a higher level 15 to 20 years ago!
Simon's question about management of habitats and which birds we should we should be prioritising is a fascinating subject and deserves a thread (or maybe a book!) of its own.
As the report says, there are various possible reasons for these declines and, for some species, it is probably a combination of several factors. However, given that we are talking about birds which are some of our northernmost breeders, I'm convinced that climate change must be one of the most important. Whilst we may as individuals feel that we are powerless to change things, we can still keep counting our birds and provide the ammunition for those with more influence.
As for John's other point about lack of response on the forum, I've had no communication about recruiting a new BTO Regional Rep (other than from Bill who's on safe ground now he's moved to North Wales ). I'm sure everyone's giving the matter serious consideration and I'll soon be inundated with enquiries...
I was already aware of these rather depressing findings (concerning reduced wader numbers on our estuaries) before I read your initial posting on this thread. I came very close to adding my thoughts in response (and support) for your views.
As you have stated in the past, you do wear your heart on your sleeve as far as birds and conservation issues are concerned; -I can fully identify with that as I am much the same, (with a particularly strong aversion to Hen Harrier persecution and a near fanatical hatred of the selfish minority involved in such crime).
The only reasons for me not responding on the forum were:
1. The findings (sadly) didn't come as much of a surprise.
2. I'm always banging on about human overpopulation and its multiple "knock on" effects, with the worldwide greed-based scramble for finite natural resources forcing a general retreat across the whole wildlife spectrum; - (Andy Bissit for one knows exactly where I'm coming from on this). I'm basically a pessimist on this; we can all "do our bit" but inexorably, broadly speaking worldwide, species diversity/numbers are in slow retreat. That is my own belief and the danger is that I risk both boring and depressing people by harping on about it, with the undesirable result that we just give up, -which we mustn't.
3. Finally, I have no answers, (other than a 30 year moratorium on humans breeding, which unsurprisingly might be a tall order to organise).
John, please don't feel discouraged by the fact that there were few initial responses to your posting; Ian's response was perfectly reasonable, and basically sympathetic; and I'm sure that a lack of visible response, (as in my case) was certainly not to be construed as a sign of any apathy from the regulars on the forum.
Regards, Mike
__________________
Challenges are inevitable, but failure is optional.
I've noticed the forum has been quiet all month, I put it down to the fact that people will be away and also maybe that the exciting birds aren't around like in April/May, or we can't report them due to breeding.
Regarding the topic, loads of the guys on here are 20 years into the hobby and have the experience to reflect on. Personally I only have a year to go on. I also sometimes would feel reluctant to comment on things for sounding a bit speculative, I am always happy to throw ideas around but I've noticed some of the threads on here become about who can be the most authoritative. The tone can be intimidating for more inexperienced birders. A contrast to meeting guys from here in person, when without exception people I've met have been very happy to share experience and wisdom in a generous way
It is interesting that the marquee birds are flourishing, it must be hard for the RSPB to balance their effort. If you were running Leighton Moss, is it better to have 30 breeding Avocet or invest in the Redshank that are very numerous still, despite the decline? Maybe some of the management hinders the commoner birds? I definitely think it would be hard for the conservation bodies to justify withdrawing the support the rarer birds get, in order to get Dunlin numbers from 1 million to 2
One thing that occurs to me about the country now is how many people are actually out and about enjoying 'leisure', surely many, many more than 20 years ago. I sometimes wonder if there is an estuary anywhere that isn't busier now, runners, walkers, sailing, us lot. When I go home to Devon on the train I can see the length of the Exe and the Teign, they are different, more pleasure boats, loads of walkers and also lots of birders, also more buildings down the shores and in the surrounding areas. Everywhere has to have a car park and a bloody café now. I got a thermos for Xmas off my Grandma by the way, I'm old school. Nothing tastes like a brew out of a flask
The other thing I guess is climate change. There are Cetti's warblers wintering in Wigan, did they used to do that? Little Bittern in Somerset every year, Stilts in Sussex, Orioles. Maybe the waders are somewhere colder.
Once again I read your original post with interest and had a look at the data and concerns expressed in the information on the BTO press release. As you say, on the face of it makes for depressing reading. I personally don't think you or anyone should give up on bringing this sort of message or information to the attention of members of the forum. The only thing I will say with regard to your comment about the lack of initial immediate responses is that sometimes for matters such as complex and little understood as this it takes time to consider a meaningful response and one that is worthy of the original post. I personally would rather take some time to mull over what I want to say and get my thoughts across properly than perhaps hastily respond to something and say something rash or wrong or that I later think I could have been worded better.
I think it's fair to say that with this bulletin as they say there are lots of unanswered questions. Local knowledge is very important and if data suggests that less waders/ducks are wintering on certain estuaries than in historical times then that will rightly be a source of worry to local birders. It's the birds that matter however and if say 2 million water birds were wintering here locally but now there's only half a million and the other one and a half million and now spending the winter on estuaries in countries further north, does that matter? I don't know the answer to that one. It will matter to local birdwatchers that they can't enjoy the spectacle of such numbers but if bird populations are holding up overall but are distributed in different areas, then provided these birds can still be adequately monitored there and their sites properly protected, then surely our worries should be much less? The press release does suggest that shifts in the positioning of wintering populations may be a factor to be considered.
It also suggests that for reasons unknown that possibly not enough young waders etc are not being recruited into the adult breeding population and that to my mind is a much more worrying scenario. I'm always banging on about the importance of monitoring our own breeding birds and we have some ideas from data gathered over many years about how some species are doing. This is an area though where "joined up" thinking and data gathering is required from across countries and continents so that we can get a truer picture of what is really going on.
I'm very glad that you made the original post and brought the BTO press release to my attention. I'm always interested to read of such matters and despite being an avid reader of all BTO stuff I may well have missed it until the next BTO News landed on my doormat. Pease don't stop posting and caring about such matters John.
Whilst on this subject I thought it might be of interest to make other forum members aware of some other brilliantly informative sources of BTO data.....if they aren't already aware of them. I have these two web address in my favourites and regularly refer to them.
http://www.bto.org/about-birds/birdtrends/2013
This gives a wealth of information and data of many of our local breeding birds. The two species you mention Redshank and Ringed Plover make for worrying reading and figures may partly explain the reason for their decline in wintering numbers. Their links are below.
The other worthy BTO web address, gives information on many aspects of a species and their biology and lifecycle.
http://www.bto.org/about-birds/birdfacts
It's interesting to look at the info in links below, again for Redshank and Ringed Plover to look about half way down the page and look at adult and juvenile survival rates, coupled with the typical numbers of years of a individuals lifespan, to suspect that it may only take small negative changes in any of these factors to have an effect on population levels. It also shows how much we still need to learn about many species of birds, as there is no data for the survival rate for juvenile Ringed Plover.
I read your post John and didn't feel that for me there was anything to comment on; you can't argue with the facts you (or rather the BTO) produced and I certainly don't have the answers to whys it's happening. I'm not sure this means the forum's dying though does it?
I haven't received my copy of the WeBS report yet either (I am eagerly awaiting it) so until I see that data I don't feel it's right to comment, as certainly in last year's report, the figures produced and the picture they presented on the Dee (or indeed the Ribble) didn't necessarily appear to reflect that decline.
Everyone has an oppinion,and I know whatever the figures may say on the Ribble and Dee,The numbers are not there as they were ,nowhere near expecially Ringed plovers and Redshank or should I say in the roosting places I know and visit every winter.I did expect a few comments. Isn't that what forums are about, and 3 years ago many regulars would most likely have commented,which didn't happen ,I was trying to cojole people who view the forum to participate a bit rather than just looking for sightings,thats what I meant with my forum Dying comment,that even when something of this magnitude happens most cannot be bothered to comment.as such it worked as now we have 2 other views differing from my own. Now ill give up cheers John
It is quite startling when you see how sharply these species have declined in such a short time. The range of species affected is really quite worrying and it has become noticeably more difficult to see several of these waders.
As the article suggests, more work is needed to establish whether the Arctic breeding populations are becoming less productive or if instead the wintering birds are shifting to new feeding grounds, away from the UK.
I read your post John and didn't feel that for me there was anything to comment on; you can't argue with the facts you (or rather the BTO) produced and I certainly don't have the answers to whys it's happening. I'm not sure this means the forum's dying though does it?
I haven't received my copy of the WeBS report yet either (I am eagerly awaiting it) so until I see that data I don't feel it's right to comment, as certainly in last year's report, the figures produced and the picture they presented on the Dee (or indeed the Ribble) didn't necessarily appear to reflect that decline.
Not sure you can put links on here ,so just Google the above and read the BTO report, Its sad reading ,but something I have noticed in the last 10 years in particular and on estuary's like the Dee last year was for me the worst ever for seeing large packs of waders :( and its not just waders its wildfowl as well
78 views ,no comment I think the forums dying a death at the moment ,anyway to me these figures are disastrous ,when you look at the decline of Ringed Plover at 40% decline almost. this is the list 10 year decline per cent
Not sure you can put links on here ,so just Google the above and read the BTO report, Its sad reading ,but something I have noticed in the last 10 years in particular and on estuary's like the Dee last year was for me the worst ever for seeing large packs of waders :( and its not just waders its wildfowl as well
. Thanks also to Bill M for pointing out some sources of more detailed information. Like Ian, I love real books (those old-fashioned things with ink on paper!) and eagerly await my copy of the report, but if you want the facts and figures they're all there online (just follow links on Bill's post).
I'm always banging on 
about the importance of monitoring our own breeding birds and we have some ideas from data gathered over many years about how some species are doing. This is an area though where "joined up" thinking and data gathering is required from across countries and continents so that we can get a truer picture of what is really going on. 
I think the forums dying a death at the moment ,anyway to me these figures are disastrous ,when you look at the decline of Ringed Plover at 40% decline almost. 