40 Kittiwake reported east up the Mersey past Hale, Cheshire this morning. Must be a decent chance of one in GM today if there is some overland passage taking place?
Andy Isherwood said
Sat Dec 26 11:42 AM, 2020
Agree with Dave that there may well be something lurking out there to be found, especially as most of us are birding closer to home than may be the norm. Dusky Warbler, Little Bunting or how about a Red Fkanked Bluetail?
John Watson said
Fri Dec 25 1:44 PM, 2020
Each year on BirdForum, a few of us make attempts at predicting medium-term weather that's beneficial to our hobby in the UK. Personally, I base it on extrapolations from Surface Pressure Charts (SPC), monitoring ocean temperatures, US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) and other sources
I try to be clear about what I predict, I don't mind being totally wrong, but I also try not to make crazy guesses beyond what will realistically happen. Sometimes I won't go beyond 2 days, sometimes up to 2 weeks ahead. The BBC tends to keep to 5 days, other sources give very over-ambitious forecasts up to 2 weeks - the science doesn't work that far ahead!
I try to add value, not repeat what can be found on BBC or Met websites - no point
The Met Office provides the following probability-based analysis, which also helps; it's for emergency planning, farmers, etc but can also give an idea of what birdlife may turn up
I can't provide the BirdForum URL for 2021 - we haven't started it yet!
dave broome said
Fri Dec 25 11:15 AM, 2020
Cant help wondering if a Dusky Warbler could be lurking undetected in Greater Manchester right now? Any other predictions for county rarities in 2021? Get out and find them before we all have to stay at home again!!
dave broome said
Sun May 27 12:21 PM, 2018
With a few in the country already this month and large numbers already moving in to SE France, could 2018 be the year in which a twitchable Rose-Coloured Starling gets found in GM?
Mike Passant said
Mon Jan 1 7:46 PM, 2018
Hi Dave,
For 2018 how about a species which has probably at least entered GM airspace in recent decades, but has never been definitely recorded, (at least as far as I am aware).
Bonapartes Gull can easily be passed over amongst hundreds of Black-headed Gulls unless observers are mindful of it as a possibility. GM has many suitable waters and very capable gull enthusiasts; - for those with less experience a good starting point when glassing through Black-headed gulls on your local water is to check bills as the prime starting point with a bird on the deck/ water; - if you find one with a black bill take a good long look at it, it may be the start of something GOOD.
Happy Birding!
dave broome said
Mon Jan 1 6:46 PM, 2018
Anybody have any predictions for birds in GM during 2018?
It would be nice if some of the Mealy Redpolls present in large numbers around the Baltic and in to Western Europe continue as far as us. Struggled to find any Redpolls during December and it would be nice to have a few flocks to sift through. Amazingly a Chinese-ringed Mealy Redpoll was controlled On Christmas Eve at Skagen Bird Observatory, Denmark.
How about Parrot Crossbill at Dovestones?
-- Edited by dave broome on Monday 1st of January 2018 06:46:40 PM
Doc Brewster said
Wed Oct 19 10:19 PM, 2016
I agree John, just not long enough in the right direction at the strength needed. Now the forecast is that it all switches round again so that the prospect of more eastern birds arriving on the East coast is likely. Wonder what goodies that will bring, everyone is praying for a Hawk Owl, but will one get over & where will it turn up?
John Watson said
Wed Oct 19 9:47 PM, 2016
Good call, though, Doc
There were 2 of us at Leasowe lifeguards: numerous Cormorants, ~10 Common Scoter, 2 Gannets, 1 Guillemot, Grey Plovers, Sanderlings, Oystercatchers, 1 Knot
Also many Dunlin & 4 Wigeon
Just needed the winds to have been more persistent WNW or NW
But no Petrels, Phalaropes, Albatrosses or Sheathbills, sadly
-- Edited by John Watson on Thursday 20th of October 2016 07:26:28 AM
Doc Brewster said
Wed Oct 19 11:16 AM, 2016
Well, just 2 Leach's Petrels materialised yesterday, 1 past Hoylake and 1 past Seacombe, still it's probably more than the rest of Autumn off the Wirral!!
Doc Brewster said
Sun Oct 16 10:22 PM, 2016
On Tuesday the BBC weather for New Brighton on the Wirral is showing winds in the afternoon of up to 50mph, very strong. These are blowing onto shore from the WNW, so not classic but there must be a chance of seabirds being blown in. The wind veers round to coming from the NW late afternoon but not as strong. It stays in this direction through Wednesday morning but weakening all the time. With this having been a very poor Leach's Petrel year on the Wirral it may be worth a punt at New Brighton or Leasowe Gunsites this week.
Andrew Huyton said
Sun Oct 16 9:21 PM, 2016
Big influx of northern hawk owl into southern Norway, apparently the birds appear restless suggesting low vole numbers. Norway has very few borders so there is undoubtedly more birds present than those reported. Couple that with a forecast of more easterlies and high pressure from mid week and I'd put a few quid on one making it to our shores before the autumn/winter is through. Anyone else want to have a go at guessing the next Mega??
JOHN TYMON said
Sat Aug 13 5:29 PM, 2016
pete berry wrote:
Looking at the pressure charts for next week we should be in for a run of south easterly winds from Monday till Friday.These winds are originating from quite a way across the continent and should produce a few Black Terns from Tuesday onwards,fingers crossed.
Sounds about reet ,I will be at work :(
pete berry said
Sat Aug 13 9:45 AM, 2016
Looking at the pressure charts for next week we should be in for a run of south easterly winds from Monday till Friday.These winds are originating from quite a way across the continent and should produce a few Black Terns from Tuesday onwards,fingers crossed.
Agree with Dave that there may well be something lurking out there to be found, especially as most of us are birding closer to home than may be the norm. Dusky Warbler, Little Bunting or how about a Red Fkanked Bluetail?
I try to be clear about what I predict, I don't mind being totally wrong, but I also try not to make crazy guesses beyond what will realistically happen. Sometimes I won't go beyond 2 days, sometimes up to 2 weeks ahead. The BBC tends to keep to 5 days, other sources give very over-ambitious forecasts up to 2 weeks - the science doesn't work that far ahead!
I try to add value, not repeat what can be found on BBC or Met websites - no point
The Met Office provides the following probability-based analysis, which also helps; it's for emergency planning, farmers, etc but can also give an idea of what birdlife may turn up
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index
I can't provide the BirdForum URL for 2021 - we haven't started it yet!
Hi Dave,
For 2018 how about a species which has probably at least entered GM airspace in recent decades, but has never been definitely recorded, (at least as far as I am aware).
Bonapartes Gull can easily be passed over amongst hundreds of Black-headed Gulls unless observers are mindful of it as a possibility. GM has many suitable waters and very capable gull enthusiasts; - for those with less experience a good starting point when glassing through Black-headed gulls on your local water is to check bills as the prime starting point with a bird on the deck/ water; - if you find one with a black bill take a good long look at it, it may be the start of something GOOD.
Happy Birding!
It would be nice if some of the Mealy Redpolls present in large numbers around the Baltic and in to Western Europe continue as far as us. Struggled to find any Redpolls during December and it would be nice to have a few flocks to sift through. Amazingly a Chinese-ringed Mealy Redpoll was controlled On Christmas Eve at Skagen Bird Observatory, Denmark.
How about Parrot Crossbill at Dovestones?
-- Edited by dave broome on Monday 1st of January 2018 06:46:40 PM
I agree John, just not long enough in the right direction at the strength needed. Now the forecast is that it all switches round again so that the prospect of more eastern birds arriving on the East coast is likely. Wonder what goodies that will bring, everyone is praying for a Hawk Owl, but will one get over & where will it turn up?
There were 2 of us at Leasowe lifeguards: numerous Cormorants, ~10 Common Scoter, 2 Gannets, 1 Guillemot, Grey Plovers, Sanderlings, Oystercatchers, 1 Knot
Also many Dunlin & 4 Wigeon
Just needed the winds to have been more persistent WNW or NW
But no Petrels, Phalaropes, Albatrosses or Sheathbills, sadly
-- Edited by John Watson on Thursday 20th of October 2016 07:26:28 AM
Well, just 2 Leach's Petrels materialised yesterday, 1 past Hoylake and 1 past Seacombe, still it's probably more than the rest of Autumn off the Wirral!!
On Tuesday the BBC weather for New Brighton on the Wirral is showing winds in the afternoon of up to 50mph, very strong. These are blowing onto shore from the WNW, so not classic but there must be a chance of seabirds being blown in. The wind veers round to coming from the NW late afternoon but not as strong. It stays in this direction through Wednesday morning but weakening all the time. With this having been a very poor Leach's Petrel year on the Wirral it may be worth a punt at New Brighton or Leasowe Gunsites this week.
Sounds about reet ,I will be at work :(