Bill,

Here's hoping for several more summers like the one we've just had to underpin the successes, not to mention a change of Government. I know, they're all the same, so any upturn will soon be strangled by these clowns.

With several earlier posts on this thread mentioning this topic I thought the following links might be of interest on how butterflies appear to have done well this summer and also a little bit on their longer term decline and the problems they face.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24108185

http://www.wildlifeextra.com/go/news/butterfly-2013.html#cr

Cheers,

Bill.

On a brighter note Tern numbers doubled by bringing tyre-based nests

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-23108484

-- Edited by John Doherty on Sunday 30th of June 2013 09:10:29 AM

Cats. Last discussed on this forum in 2009 and whilst points made may well be valid please continue any serious cat debate (which genererally hijacks any thread it rears its head on!) by digging out the old thread

Hi

What a brilliant thread this is.......

I'm having a very similar year to most other 'Birders' unfortuneately.......that being, a generally quieter one than usual.
Migrant numbers on my local 'Patch' are well down on those from pevious years, but I am at least still recording the same species, (ie), Whitethroat, Blackcap, Willow Warbler, Chiffchaff, Garden Warbler, Redstart, Lesser Whitethroat, Reed Warbler, Sedge Warbler, Grasshopper Warbler, Hobby, and all 4 hirundines, although I'm still missing both Spotted Flycatcher and Cuckoo.
There are still plenty of all of the resident species in evidence, and Goldfinch numbers just keep on rising and rising, but strangely, I'm recording Great Tit, Greenfinch and Blue Tit, in far smaller numbers than usual.

I think that there are without doubt far fewer insects around than I can remember from my younger 'Birding' day's in the sixties and seventies, and this is bound to have had an effect on most species, and of course, there is also a never ending amount of habitat being destroyed by development of one kind or another.

But above all else, there has been the massive introduction into the food chain of the Domestic Cat, and this has had an almost incalculable effect on the UK's wildlife in general, because this is a predator that has a vast array of prey species, which includes not only birds, but also rats, mice, voles, frogs, toads, newts, moths, butterflies, and many more, and remember, unlike corvids, sparrowhawk's, foxes, badger's etc, the Cat isn't supposed to be here, it is an introduced species, and more significantly, a species that is right at the very top of the food chain.
I've had to move my Feeding Station into the middle of the garden, which doesn't suit the birds generally, because they seem to prefer it situated closer to cover, but this was forced on me, after witnessing the fledglings of all of the visiting species being picked off with consumate ease by the neighbourhood Cats............ day, after day, after day.

There have been numerous surveys carried out to try and determine the overall effect of Cats on the UK's wildlife, and some of the results have been contradicting, but in general, it has been estimated that Cats munch their way through anywhere between 100 - 200 million birds alone............ per annum in the UK.

After all that time bashing our heads together (), the National Trust has just posted a 6 month review of the year, and the ups and down for wildlife:

http://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/article-1355790070631/

As usual, there's good and bad news, but more worryingly, the Butterflies and Moths are having another bad breeding season. This has already been said by quite few members on this thread, but it's nice (or bad) to see this confirmed nationally.

Hi all, i am new to this forum but my no means new to birding. I have been finding and recording birds nests for the best part of 35 years. I am not going to argue with people about the ups and downs of certain species but i am going to say that i am finding fewer and fewer nests year on year and more importantly the percentage of failure through all the species i watch has increased .The numbers of Golden plover ,Curlew,Redshank, and to a lesser degree Dunlin, have fallen dramatically on my local moors.Breeding Ring Ouzel ,Twite ,Whinchat and plenty of other fantastic birds gone from view. Personally over the years i have seen so many of the species mentioned fail to rear young due to predation,primarily by crows. I am going to stop now before i get carried away. Just to finish by saying it doesn,t really matter whats going on in Africa,because if no chicks are raised here theres nothing to come back anyway'.If anyone wants to discuss further pm me.

Paul Risley wrote:

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Just to add to my previous post to clarify my viewpoint. 3 weeks ago I walked through a small steep sided wooded valley just out of county, I didnt see anything it was dark with little undergrowth. When I came out the other side I saw a Male Redstart on a fence post fly back into the woods, no further sightings that day but I went back a couple of days later and saw a female, determined to get to know the species better I went back several times and eventually located the nest, first tree I sat under waiting for a sighting in the woods had a coal tits nest with young in it so I moved 30 yards away as not to disturb them, next tree to were I now sat had great tits feeding young in it, I found a further 2 blue tit nests, Robin, wren and blackbird feeding young, a dipper flying past regularly with food and a willow warbler on eggs in undergrowth just outside the woods, all common birds I know and apologies for waffling on but a couple of points Im trying to get over. Firstly those birds were there in the woods the first time I went through and saw nothing, secondly though and much more importantly is that these birds had either waited for the cold patch to end before nesting, sat through it or had laid replacement clutches, the weather around these parts at least has been very good for birds since that first cold spell, in fact the reservoirs are getting low. I was in the area again last night to look for owls, no luck but I did see 4 separate pairs of curlew with fledged young. The area was buzzing with bird song again. Ive had an hour at Aspull sough and an hour at the northern end of Borsdane woods during the last week, both areas were alive with all the common species, my mate watches a sand martin colony just out of county, between 40 and 50 holes in use with many close to fledging, this time last year the bank kept collapsing due to the rain. With respect guys, Im just putting down what Im seeing, its a million miles from a tipping point, I would go so far as to say were in for a bumper year so long as the weather holds. With regards magpies, it sounds like penny has got ours, since the buzzards appeared their numbers seemed to have dropped locally. For the first time in years Ive hardly seen any around the gardens tormenting the breeding birds

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As people have kept trying to say, Paul, this is not just about birds. Of course there are birds out there, and it sounds as if you found a hot-spot there. But are you aware whether or not there were three or four pairs of redstarts there, say five years ago? Of course this year ought to be better for breeding birds: June is on course to have 8 inches less rain this year than last, and to be over twice as sunny (figures from Buxton Weather). However, many, many pairs are not here in the first place in order to try and turn things around. That is perhaps why all those that are are doing well, as there is less competition for food. I've read (and seen) that crane-flies are having a good year, and greenfly have been very obvious recently (lack of ladybirds perhaps?), so some insects are having a better time of it. We can only sit back now and see what the end of breeding season stats say. Chances are, it will make for better reading than last year. It has to. But will it be enough to bring back the missing garden warblers, lesser whitethroats, hobbies, house martins, swallows...

Just to add to my previous post to clarify my viewpoint. 3 weeks ago I walked through a small steep sided wooded valley just out of county, I didnt see anything it was dark with little undergrowth. When I came out the other side I saw a Male Redstart on a fence post fly back into the woods, no further sightings that day but I went back a couple of days later and saw a female, determined to get to know the species better I went back several times and eventually located the nest, first tree I sat under waiting for a sighting in the woods had a coal tits nest with young in it so I moved 30 yards away as not to disturb them, next tree to were I now sat had great tits feeding young in it, I found a further 2 blue tit nests, Robin, wren and blackbird feeding young, a dipper flying past regularly with food and a willow warbler on eggs in undergrowth just outside the woods, all common birds I know and apologies for waffling on but a couple of points Im trying to get over. Firstly those birds were there in the woods the first time I went through and saw nothing, secondly though and much more importantly is that these birds had either waited for the cold patch to end before nesting, sat through it or had laid replacement clutches, the weather around these parts at least has been very good for birds since that first cold spell, in fact the reservoirs are getting low. I was in the area again last night to look for owls, no luck but I did see 4 separate pairs of curlew with fledged young. The area was buzzing with bird song again. Ive had an hour at Aspull sough and an hour at the northern end of Borsdane woods during the last week, both areas were alive with all the common species, my mate watches a sand martin colony just out of county, between 40 and 50 holes in use with many close to fledging, this time last year the bank kept collapsing due to the rain. With respect guys, Im just putting down what Im seeing, its a million miles from a tipping point, I would go so far as to say were in for a bumper year so long as the weather holds. With regards magpies, it sounds like penny has got ours, since the buzzards appeared their numbers seemed to have dropped locally. For the first time in years Ive hardly seen any around the gardens tormenting the breeding birds

No worries Steve.

I know we've all had those 'why do I bother' days in terms of going out and checking a site (because we don't own crystal balls and boots must be on the ground) but all it takes is a day to for us to go 'that's why I bother' - it's a good thread non-the-less this and I'm enjoying the different POVs, all of them have some logic, personal perspective and truth

No, John, I wasn't specifically referring to your post. I agree with you (and with Ian's earlier comment) about the number of people out there "actively looking for birds" as opposed to those trying to get a view of the birds that others have found...

...and no, Andy, I wouldn't suggest that you don't keep records

It all comes down to exploring those "corridors of uncertainty"

have read and deleted my posts in this thread as I have gone along and as I dont think what I said was taken correctly at the time and quoted out of context, which is something I hate forums for I decided to reply one last time.
The main issues I can see this year is on my local patches are thus. No Little grebes nesting, where they were formally common with up to a dozen breeding pairs. Great crested Grebes now attempting to nest but more out in the water rather than in the reeds, so the Rain thats been forecast could lead to disaster for them. The number of formally common birds like Sedge Warbler, Willow Warbler etc is well down on the norm to my eyes, and anyone who really knows penny cannot deny it is having a poor year.
I havent seen a single Grasshopper warbler, Lesser Whitethroat, not a single breeding Lapwing, very few broods of true Mallard, whether this is down to Mink, weather, crows, Magpies is anyones guess, but predation on places like Pennington is all too apparent, when the largest number of birds last weekend on the spit at Pennington was Magpies, and at one point one tried to catch a fledged pied wagtail, which in a normal year would have been 3 or 5 young pied wagtails, where this pair only had one left to feed, so where have the others gone. Of course what I am seeing could also be down to the frequency I can bird at penny due to work commitments, which leaves in the main a few hours a Saturday and Sunday, but what I am hearing from the daily regulars is they have never seen penny so bad.
More worrying for me is the lack of insects, hardly a dragonfly, very few Bees, even flies etc and in the end these are food for the birds. Butterflies so far this year are a total disaster. I can count on one hand the number of small tortoiseshell where they once could be counted in their hundreds, no Red Admirals, a few Peacocks, etc. Common Blues used to be so abundant in areas of penny that they would fill the air as you walked through their favourite plant trefoil. Up to now this year I have seen 5, and the peak time has nearly gone for these, I have seen 2 small Coppers, where once they were one of the most common sights at the flash, and the peak time for Dragonflies is nearly with us, with little to be seen.
The numbers of birds quoted as being present on the Mosses are a drop in the ocean to what they formally where not many years ago, when almost every bush had a willow warbler or meadow pipit, and now very little.
The comments on amount of people out birding finding their own birds, is definitely a valid one, as I have noticed it for years at penny, when some weekends I can be the only person on with Charlie looking at the common birds, while many come on ,go to horrocks, if theres nothing about leave immediately, or worse dont visit at all because nothing been reported on the forum, Or the amount of people at penny could put people off visiting and recording the birds as that gets to me at times also. You only need to look at the posts on here for Pennington Flash to see that, sometimes between my weekend visits , nothing is reported. So if thats happening at the premier site, what about all the in between sites. Many of the birders I do see at penny spend more time looking at the phone checking bird guides, or the Mancy forum just to see whats about somewhere else rather than actually looking and finding the birds themselves.
Everyone treats their hobby differently and for many its just a look on the forum, find out where the next greenish warbler is and fire off, and theres nothing wrong with that ,occasionally I decide to have a change and go to see something that has turned up ,Like the Great northern Diver last year etc, or maybe the Greenish Warbler if it stays, but if this was exclusively what I did , I dont think I would continue with the hobby ,as this sort of thing is most likely leaving many good sites now almost not covered at all., so sometimes what is recorded in the small islands that are covered well may not give a true picture of what is really happening .
Many seem to be having a good year like Mark Rigby up in the Oldham Hills, which could be because birds are vacating the normal lowland haunts due to predation and moving to the higher land.
In one way forums have actually most likely led to less people finding their own birds, and although a valuable resource these days we should sometimes think, what are we in the hobby for, and how or would we have bothered to find our own birds before the forum existed?. My guess is many would have chosen a different easier hobby, and this may be the result in the future, as less people actually try to find birds there will seemingly be less for people to follow, so less may enter the hobby at all .
Hopefully if we get a prolonged dry spell, birds will be successful, Butterflys and dragonflies will emerge and everything will be rosy. That is as much as we can hope for this year.
On a positive note when visiting the seabird colonies on South Stack last week, it was noted that the numbers seem to be very good for Razorbills, Guillemots, etc, but this could be due to the east coast colonies not being as good as they once were due to the heavy fishing, and these could be birds that have moved to our fish filled west coast. What I am hearing also is Tern colonies seem to be doing well on the Welsh coat so all is not doom and Gloom.
Anyone who really knows me will know that Pagers etc are not for me and I havent even got a phone thats ont tinternet, for me a phone is just that and I see what I see whether its common or rare, and get a few pics along the way.
So to answer the question as to whether this year could be the tipping point? In my humble opinion we will only know in the years following this and only if we keep recording the common birds and enjoy the hobby as a whole, rather than a small part.
I would also encourage birders to watch for the other flora and fauna, as this is a greater pointer as to what is really happening in our natural world, sometimes looking to the floor rather than the Skies can be quite enlightening.
:)

Cheers John

p.s sorry about thelong paragraphs,as it wasn't like that when I wrote it ,but after posting everything seems to get pushed together .







-- Edited by JOHN TYMON on Thursday 20th of June 2013 04:27:01 PM

Good news! Saw 'my' bat last evening, so that was brilliant. Also a local group of about twenty swifts feeding nearby tonight.

Quite a few things being said about raptors in the last 24 hours. I have certainly noted a fall in casual sightings of sparrowhawk this year (since last summers rain, in fact), and I've still not seen a hobby in the county (or Cheshire where I work). I would love to see red kites locally, goshawks and so on. My impression seems to be that because we are seeing buzzards every day, that means all is rosy for birds of prey. Steve mentions the tricks the memory can play, that is why I'm on safe ground because I have notebooks going back nearly 30 years, and I know what they are telling me (goodbye to many, many species of locally breeding birds). I threw in the line about 'rarities' because the hope of discovering one was often what got me out in the 'wilds'; and when I didn't, I just recorded the wide range of 'ordinary' birds that I saw. Now I feel the chances of stumbling on something unusual are lower than they were round here (Europe has lost 350 million birds since the 60's/70's), and that combined with the lack of quality and quantity of the standard fare is not going to see me out there that often (a lot of walking about is not too good for the old frame these days). Still love the outdoors, though, and this evening was beautiful

Andy Bissitt wrote:

---

... In a survey (of how many I don't know) of the public including RSPB members, 66% thought that nature was the same, or better off than it was 10 years ago....

---

The problem seems to be that there's too much "thought that", "my impression is" and "in my opinion". We know how selective the human memory can be so that's why we keep records and participate in surveys.

When we look at the survey results (as outlined by Bill below) we then get on to the thorny subject of how we analyse the data. Do we look at recent trends or do we look at the longer term figures? And what if they seem to contradict each other?

Some things are pretty obvious - like the rise in the numbers of (most) birds of prey and the decline of (most) farmland birds - but when it comes to most of our migrant passerines things get a lot more complicated.

Quite what the number of rarities has to do with it beats me though

Mark Rigby wrote:

---

Craig Higson wrote:

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Just to throw something else in the pot, has anyone seen Iolo Williams speech at the State of Nature event? Search for it on you tube. It's about 15mins long. Inspirational? Stark warning? The guy deserves respect for eat he says I k ow that much. (First minute is in welsh).

---

It looks like the last sentence of your post is in Welsh as well Craig!

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iPad spell check plus rushing plush touchscreen typing equals garbage!!

Steve, if you're referring to my post then I'll just clarify in other terms - the point was made vis-a-vis the fact that not every square mile is trooped, therefore that a rarity (and of course a more common but still nice species to see) could be just around the corner and yet a lot of birding is done in specific sites whereas some swathes are underwatched or not watched at all - which would ultimately help stats and surveying anyway, the more we look, the wider we look, the more we see.... purely positive and rational point, oc.
Of course the Greenish Warbler is evidence of that, but if I was to stumble upon a Spotted Flycatcher today like I hoped, it would be because I went off the beaten track into the right habitat and fly-infested bit of Dunham Massey



-- Edited by John Doherty on Wednesday 19th of June 2013 10:48:20 PM

I can't comment too much as I have only been birding two and a half years, but the 'younger generation' applies to me. I've noticed a steady increase in GREENFINCHES, themselves afflicted by disease sometime before I joined the birding masses - this is just observational, but I do intend to cement this evidence in my records (to Ian) I also noticed someone else mentioning an upsurge of the species recently. I guess that's good news, or am I wrong?

Also, as somebody pointed out the other day, conditions for migrants just don't rely on Britain and the habitat here - we have to look at their points or origin and the passage they take to visit our green and pleasant land - we've only got to look at Malta and the horrendous goings on there, but I'm referring to climate in Africa, the increasing aridness of the land there.
I happen to know that whenever I visit Croatia the likes of Wood Warbler, Spotted Flycatcher, Pied Flycatcher are in abundance, sure it'd be nice to see one of those species in the UK (which I'm yet to do) but I think that the issue is deeper than them just simply not being here - for example, look at the Greenish Warbler at Turton. A mega bird in a remote location, we're lucky to have picked it up. There could be a bird of that gravity for every square twenty miles and we don't know! The simple fact is, if we think about birdable areas, the great stuff and even the common migrants get seen at the reserves and places folk frequent as habit.
Somebody mentioned that there's less birders in this county birding - I guess that's based on who we see on our travels rather than the forum's members since, simply, not every birder I have met is on the forum (or joins when I insist they should, young people too who I've met once honestly, THEIR LOSS as this is an amazing resource which would enhance their birding - but a separate topic no doubt) I think there's even a little bit of prophecy - what I mean is, people will think 'It's mid-June now, it'll be quiet' and might not bother going to look, and as a result those people who build a picture of birding/ 'what's out there' based on others' sightings will also subsequently think it's quiet because few are out there looking.

Andy said that he's been out looking so fair enough. But it is strange. The weather is currently up and down, just like migrants are seemingly in pockets.

Craig Higson wrote:

---

Just to throw something else in the pot, has anyone seen Iolo Williams speech at the State of Nature event? Search for it on you tube. It's about 15mins long. Inspirational? Stark warning? The guy deserves respect for eat he says I k ow that much. (First minute is in welsh).

---

It looks like the last sentence of your post is in Welsh as well Craig!

Dont forget we had hardly any Raptors from the late fifties onwards
Sparrowhawks only started to recover from DDT in our area in the late seventies. This meant small to medium sized birds had had little to no natural predation for at least 25 years, the only limiting factor to population size was food and disease, this meant many of these species were at or near their maximum capacity well into the eighties. To take anytime from the sixties through to the mid nineties as a comparison to today is in my humble opinion wrong, there are too many variables.

Just to throw something else in the pot, has anyone seen Iolo Williams speech at the State of Nature event? Search for it on you tube. It's about 15mins long. Inspirational? Stark warning? The guy deserves respect for eat he says I k ow that much. (First minute is in welsh).

Nice to see this thread bubbling along. It's good to talk, as a well known advertising slogan has it. I am aware that it is not all doom at gloom, because even one single bird seen on any day can make me smile. But coming back to base camp reality. How many of you out there have read the latest copy of the RSPB's magazine? To keep things neat, I'll stick with the one thing that has jumped out at me. In a survey (of how many I don't know) of the public including RSPB members, 66% thought that nature was the same, or better off than it was 10 years ago. The stark add-on of the writer is 'that simply is not true. We are winning many battles, but are slowly losing the war'. You've no idea how sad I felt when I saw the weather forecast this evening for Thursday - Saturday. Just when we need it to stay dry and warm for the sake of all animals, it looks like another really poor spell is coming. Sure, some things will shrug it off and come out fighting again. Quite a lot will falter even further than before. Let's hope it's a temporary blip.

Andy Bissitt wrote:

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I was all too aware of what you have reproduced here, which is why I said in my initial post 'not too historically'. The 1950's were 50 to 60 years ago. Things during the 80's - 90's were far better than today. Absolutely no doubt.

-- Edited by Andy Bissitt on Saturday 15th of June 2013 10:30:36 PM

---

There are some fascinating thoughts and opinions from all who have posted on this thread - what it does go to show is how passionately we all care about and worry about our birds and especially those that are breeding on our doorstep.

Andy - I can recall we had a fairly similar exchange of views as recently as March 2013 on the "Cold weather: nesting and migrating" thread on this same forum. In that I tried to use the most up to date facts and figures from the Breeding Birds Survey (BBS) to suggest that in my opinion all was not quite as bleak as you thought it was. In that post I tried to suggest that there were ups and downs and I still stick with that view.

If I can add further from that earlier post, a couple of quick tallies from the publication "The State of the UK's Birds 2012" which shows the trends for 106 common breeding birds in the UK, also has mixed results. It looks at the long-term trend from 1970 - 2010, (although it does qualify these figures by stating that the long-term trends for these species may not be representative of the UK population prior to 1994, due to the more limited geographical and habitat coverage of the Common Bird Census). It also looks at the short term trend 1995 - 2010 from the smoothed BBS results, hence dropping off the supposedly good breeding year of 2011 and obviously not yet including 2012 which was generally perceived to be a poor breeding year. A very simple tally of all species increasing/decreasing (where figures were available) shows 38/41 for the longer term and 59/46 for the shorter term.

I note your remark about the 1980's and 1990's being better for birds. If that should indeed be the case, then what the quotes from Breeding Birds in Greater Manchester (BBGM) do seem to suggest is that the period that you refer to, certainly to me anyway, appears to be out of keeping with both earlier and later times. Possibly then that should not be a period considered to be the norm or the baseline to which all things present must be compared? It is interesting on a more local level to have a quick look through BBGM (done at the start of the period you refer to as being "far better than today") and just do a quick count and subjectively (admittedly not very scientific I know!) assess how many might have increased/decreased in GM since the survey period (1979 - 1983)...you might be surprised at the figures, which again is a mixture of positives and negatives and all might not be quite as bad as you think?

Yes 2012 was considered to be a generally poor breeding season and even worse than that for some species such as the warblers with the "worst breeding season for at least 30 years". I personally haven't done anything like enough birding in 2013 to have an opinion on this year I'm afraid. It's always interesting to read of the differing opinions on those birders who have been out and about and all are valid and well meant but I think it's only fair to say that the messages are mixed. It may well turn out to be a second successive poor or even disastrous year, which will indeed be a considerable worry and yes will certainly impact on the figures used earlier. Yes too it's very worrying to hear of declines in insect populations, obviously a major part of some species diets. I, like yourself worry about our breeding birds (in my opinion they are absolutely our most important birds) but over the centuries there will have been disastrous breeding seasons and sensational breeding seasons and undoubtedly all shades in-between too! However, just one or two years aren't thankfully a pattern and even then who knows if we have a good 2014, then the last 4 years might be considered to have broken even? If I can quote again from a BTO publication that looked at the early results from 2012 - "Many of the species mentioned above are capable of producing large numbers of offspring each year and therefore have the potential to bounce back rapidly following a poor breeding season, provided conditions improve. However, the extreme weather experienced in 2012 resulted from a shift in the trajectory of the jet stream and it is difficult to predict how its position may be influenced by future climatic warming and the melting of Arctic icecap. If wet summers become more frequent, then we may witness long-term changes in the numbers of some bird species".

Certainly not everything in the garden is rosy but neither do I think that we have reached a tipping point....well not yet anyway!

Finally, all of this really serves to highlight the most important topic discussed on the forum in recent months, in that we all need to make an effort to record and report all of our breeding birds - if we don't have accurate information on past events and also what is going on currently then we do really struggle to make any accurate and meaningful comparisons.

Cheers,

Bill.

And everybody breath...

The fact is that we all have our own opinion on this subject, much of it (hopefully) gleaned from our own personal observations. Mine certainly differ from many of those on here whilst some other facts are irrefutable; swings and roundabouts. It is good that we can publicly discuss them on here too but please remember that a difference of opinion does not an argument make.

One thing I know to be true though (and this is off topic I know) is that there are less observers than in the past 30 years actively looking for birds out there, certainly in this county anyway. The overwhelming majority of breeding birds are recorded by a very small percentage of our birding community and it is many of those observers who appear to be on the positive side of things. Many sites are practically devoid of birders and, before anyone jumps in, that's not because there's nothing to see either. If we only go out when there's something special to see then we might as well pack in, no matter where we live in the country. Didn't we all start birding because birds are beautiful, fascinating creatures? What's changed there? Is it all therefore doom and gloom; should be all pack up and move on to a new hobby because its all downhill from here (allegedly)? Whether or not this year in particular will be a poor one I'll leave to the statistics but there have been many breeding triumphs already too, at least some are out there waiting to be found

Andy.... you just need a new refreshing way of birding

Try reading Zen Birding by David M White and Susan M Guyette,
Quote it is a truly wonderful book, I wish it had existed decades ago, because then its gentle insight and great intelligence would have led earlier to what has become for me the primacy of watching birds..

It will make you feel a better birder.

I cannot argue with anyone saying that this year is an extremely bad year for wildlife. You know what you've seen, and I cannot refute it.
However, I will caution the use of a "tipping point", in reference of two or three years, on something as dynamic as a population. During the Big Freeze, the Dartford Warblers population was reduced to a few individuals, and could definitely be seen as a tipping point at that time: were the Dartford Warbler going to die out and become extinct in Britain? Well now we look on 40 years later, and Dartford Warblers have never been so numerous! Same goes for the Wren (at a less extreme scale): badly hit, but now the commonest bird in Britain. If the trend of "bad breeding seasons" continues for a few more years, only then would I say in 20 years time "the 10s were the tipping point". But populations can bounce back: we don't know but maybe in 30 years time everything would be back to normal and everything perfect! Don't underestimate wildlife, and remember that it works on a much slower scale than our high-speed minds can see. Populations rise and fall, and has been doing so for millennia, with or without our help (though we can certainly do are best to halt the declines).

Now, I'm not saying that this year was a walk in the park for wildlife, or that we shouldn't lament the huge decline of some species. But please don't think that only a few bad breeding seasons would be the ultimate, final, tipping point.

>

-- Edited by JOHN TYMON on Monday 17th of June 2013 12:07:20 PM

Andy Bissett wrote

Carry on enjoying what you see, Paul. It could be as good as you'll ever see again.

Point taken Andy, in a couple of years time well know for sure if you or I was right about this tipping point, If your right Ill buy you a couple of pints whilst we discuss where it all went wrong, forgive me though if I refuse to talk about stamps . for the time being though Ill refrain from putting any more of my personal thoughts on this theory but will say at this moment in time, it is as good as it has ever been in the places I frequent and I can certainly count more species nowadays than what I did in the eighties, examples given in my first post

Mark Rigby wrote:

Well said Bill!

I'm getting a bit fed up with all this negativity!

Im in total agreement guys, its like reading something from songbird survival,

John Tymon wrote Even at Astley moss which I have covered several times. The lack of common breeding birds screams out at you. We did a circuit the other week perfect weather,1 willow warbler, where there used to be one on almost every bush.


Looking at just a few other posts from the Astley Moss thread in the last couple of weeks and others have wrote

Swifts and Swallows in good numbers
Lapwing 15
Willow Warbler 6
Lesser Whitethroat 1
Whitethroat 5
Good numbers of damselflies and four spotted chasers around too.
3 Yellowhammers
2 Tree Sparrows on the track
Blackcaps - heard all over the place, saw 1 !
Willow Warblers - ditto heard but none seen!
Garden Warbler - 1 glimpsed, 3 more heard


Sorry guys but its not all doom and gloom, heard all this before in the eighties, nineties and noughties. It was the next Ice age is coming in the eighties coupled with theres too many raptors and corvids in the nineties, you might be on a bad run of luck or you might have noticed localised problems but theres no way weve reached an imaginary tipping point, oh and as for swallows all my local sites are in use, on Horwich moors I picked this quote out

Lots of Swallows and Swifts swooping low over the heather, especially at Burnt Edge. could quote the swift numbers at Penny a few weeks back but it will probably fall on deaf ears

Can definitely see both sides of the argument on this one and been having this discussion with my brother for past few years based on his coverage of my old east yorks patch which we have covered between us for over 30 years. There is no doubt some species have seen a massive decline in this period ie. spotted flycatcher, turtle dove. But these have been replaced by others ie Long tailed tit, sedge warbler are 2 that spring most to mind, and where we would see only 4-5 species of bird of prey annually this can now easily be surpassed in a single day! On a county basis ( based on my 15 year experience) this is mirrored in my experience eg hope Carr has lost most if not all its breeding waterfowl but these have been replaced by warblers and other woodland species as the habitat changes. Not totalled up but pretty sure the number of breeding species locally is still the same, maybe even slightly higher than in the past. This year in isolation does look very poor but did a lot of our local migrants give up and stop further south due to the cold, late weather?
Just my thoughts though!

Paul Risley wrote:

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theres no way weve reached an imaginary tipping point,

---

You are so certain that we have not reached the 'imaginary' tipping point. That kind of complacency sank the Titanic (or was it an iceberg?). I wish I could reproduce some facts and figures that Barry Shaw compiled and published in an issue of the Newsletter of the Cheshire and District Branch of Butterfly Conservation two or three years ago. He has been running a moth trap in his garden for very many years, and the comparison catches of countless species had plummeted in a very short space of time. Sure, there were some that had increased in number, but these gains were insignificant compared to the huge reduction in species caught and individual counts of those species that were still present. I knew then we were in a bit of trouble, and since that time we have had two or three more very poor summers and bad cold spells during winter. That is why people in conservation who know better than I have spoken of the tipping point having been reached. My own experiences this spring/summer, in the eastern half of the county at least, are telling me that this has come to pass. Carry on enjoying what you see, Paul. It could be as good as you'll ever see again.

-- Edited by Andy Bissitt on Sunday 16th of June 2013 10:21:54 PM

"When I take a two hour walk in the middle of June, as I did this afternoon, and don't see a single butterfly in fair weather, you should be worried."

This I do agree with. I've yet to see a Small Tortoiseshell, Red Admiral, Orange Tip, or any other of the common butterflies (except whites and 1 Brimstone) this year. Again though the one bit of 'confidence' I have is that moths and butterflies are well known for being able to delay emergence until conditions suit, even up to 1 year I believe.

Mark Rigby wrote:

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Well said Bill!

I'm getting a bit fed up with all this negativity!

In Oldham, there are more Whitethroats than have been recorded before. Sedge Warbler is normally a 'mega' with a spring passage sighting but there are at least 2 pairs this year. I am aware of at least 4 breeding pairs of Oystercatcher , Common Sandpipers, Lapwings, Curlews, Golden Plover, Wheatear, Grey Wagtail, Dipper etc........

Are people out looking as much any more? I have been to various locations today and not met another birder all day! Are we getting lazy? With an over reliance on pagers and the Internet waiting for other birders to find birds for us?

Several threads on the forum have comment such as "can't believe it's so quiet" and "not much about" but if you look back on the same threads at the same time last year you will see the comments again and again. Could that be due to the fact that birds are in the middle of breeding ?

I agree that the weather has been a little erratic over the last few years and this year some birds have arrived incredibly late compared to other years. Looking at that positively, the birds have hopefully missed the poor weather and can get on with raising their young. If the birds are late, there is also a good chance that the insects are also going to emerge later than normal.

As for the rarities, Shorelark, Lapland Bunting, Snow Bunting, Cattle Egret, Common Crane, Spoonbill. Great White Egret, Cettis Warbler, Firecrest, Ring-necked Duck, Long-tailed Duck, Rough-legged Buzzard, Broad-billed Sandpiper, Whiskered Tern, White-winged Black Tern, American Black Tern and not forgetting Dusky Thrush amongst others have all been recorded over the last few years!

---

Mark,

It doesn't matter whether you are getting fed up with it or not. What I have said is undeniably the truth as I have, and am, witnessing it. I am looking out as much as ever. For example: I dropped my car off for a service in Stockport Town centre a week last Tuesday, and walked home through the Woodbank Park/Goyt Valley/Chadkirk Estate, a good 4 miles plus in about four hours through our best woodland habitat, and saw/heard a few chiffchaffs and blackcaps. Apart from hirundines/swifts, that was it for migrants! Also no lesser spotted woodpeckers, yellowhammers, garden warbler, lesser whitethroat, tree sparrow, spotted flycatcher, little owl, whitethroat and so on, all birds I've recorded in this area down the years. I regularly visit what was once a piece of prime birding habitat called Ludworth Moor. It is now virtually as deathly quiet as a cemetery. The plain fact is that it is unlikely I would meet another birdwatcher up there, especially one new to the hobby, because after two or three visits, they would realise that they were wasting their time. I'm sorry Mark, but if you don't really think the status of the county's fauna has gone backwards in the last five-six years (and note that my post was not limited to birds), then it is you who is not looking as much. When I take a two hour walk in the middle of June, as I did this afternoon, and don't see a single butterfly in fair weather, you should be worried.

Thanks for reminding me about the 'rarities'. I was thinking more national than county. Again though, is one every six months (if you are lucky) going to keep newcomers interested? Here's to better times. Cheers.

Well said Bill!

I'm getting a bit fed up with all this negativity!

In Oldham, there are more Whitethroats than have been recorded before. Sedge Warbler is normally a 'mega' with a spring passage sighting but there are at least 2 pairs this year. I am aware of at least 4 breeding pairs of Oystercatcher , Common Sandpipers, Lapwings, Curlews, Golden Plover, Wheatear, Grey Wagtail, Dipper etc........

Are people out looking as much any more? I have been to various locations today and not met another birder all day! Are we getting lazy? With an over reliance on pagers and the Internet waiting for other birders to find birds for us?

Several threads on the forum have comment such as "can't believe it's so quiet" and "not much about" but if you look back on the same threads at the same time last year you will see the comments again and again. Could that be due to the fact that birds are in the middle of breeding ?

I agree that the weather has been a little erratic over the last few years and this year some birds have arrived incredibly late compared to other years. Looking at that positively, the birds have hopefully missed the poor weather and can get on with raising their young. If the birds are late, there is also a good chance that the insects are also going to emerge later than normal.

As for the rarities, Shorelark, Lapland Bunting, Snow Bunting, Cattle Egret, Common Crane, Spoonbill. Great White Egret, Cettis Warbler, Firecrest, Ring-necked Duck, Long-tailed Duck, Rough-legged Buzzard, Broad-billed Sandpiper, Whiskered Tern, White-winged Black Tern, American Black Tern and not forgetting Dusky Thrush amongst others have all been recorded over the last few years!

Bill Myerscough wrote:

---

Has the past always been better for birds? Do we look at birds in historical times through rose-tinted glasses? A look at our last breeding birds atlas publication - "Breeding Birds In Greater Manchester" by Holland, Spence and Sutton makes for interesting reading and the realisation that there always have been up and downs for many species; many of these ups and downs directly the result of man's influence upon and interference with the environment at that particular time. I hope I'm not breaching any copyright law by giving full credit to the above publication and acknowledgements to its authors whilst copying directly below a few random sections which may be of interest.

Bill.


1905-13
A depressed state of the bird-life in the towns may be inferred from Stubbs' descriptions of Oldham's birds (1905,1912). There had been no House Martins since 1895, Swifts were uncommon and he defined a resident species as follows:- 'a resident bird can always be recognised by the dirty condition of its plumage'. Outside the towns there was a marked improvement and Stubbs gave a thorough account of all the species which were seen within a ten-mile radius of Oldham. The Whinchat, Sedge Warbler and Yellowhammer were all common. The Nightjar was nesting at Swineshaw, Chew Valley, Wharmton and Denshaw with Stonechats nearby. However the Long-tailed Tit, Coal Tit, Goldfinch and Crow were scarce visitors and not present in the breeding season. The only owls recorded as breeding were Tawny Owls which although restricted to Longdendale were thought to be getting commoner. The Sparrowhawk was common, the Merlin bred regularly on almost all the moors and he had 'often seen Kestrels pursue and capture birds but never a mammal'. Like Blackwall in 1822 he noted that Cuckoos only parasitised Meadow Pipits although there were plenty of Tree Pipits about. The Woodpigeon was only recorded as nesting at Hopwood, Greenfield and Longdendale, in well-wooded areas.
A list of birds of the Rochdale area (Lord 1913) gives a picture consistent with that of Stubbs for the north east sector of the present GMC.
The southern edge was incorporated at that time into Cheshire which was described by Coward and Oldham (1910). Coward lived within today's Greater Manchester and many of their observations were for our area:- the Common Sandpiper nested between Stockport and the Mersey's confluence with the Irwell, Whinchats were abundant along the Mersey Valley. There were no Nuthatches in North Cheshire but the Redstart was increasing with a dozen in Dunham Park.
In another book Coward (1922) gives a fantastic description of the transition of Carrington Moss from a grouse moor through a dump for Manchester's spoil to agricultural land where Corn Bunting had replaced the Twite, and Partridges had replaced Grouse.

1930's
With the formation of the British Trust for Ornithology in 1933 an era of quantitative ornithology began and from then on more detailed statements on changes in bird populations are possible. Manchester University Museum has boxfiles which include detailed notes made by S. V. Wild in an area in the south of the county covering a triangle from Brooklands station to Ringway to Altrincham. Apart from exceptionally common species like Sparrows he noted every observation and several useful counts of birds were made. In particular he organised the 1932 Barn Owl census in the Altrincham area; in 1937 he counted Yellowhammers; and in 1939 and 1940 he counted Willow Warblers and Whitethroats.
Species which were not encountered much were Bullfinch (none recorded between 1931 and 1944), Crow (none until 1943), Goldfinch (only 1939) and Jay (only 1939). The Magpie was reported in 1930 as 'while not very common it is probable that odd pairs may nest'. The common birds were Chaffinch (though not so common as Greenfinch), Yellowhammer, Whitethroat, Skylark and Yellow Wagtail as well as those still common today e.g. Blackbird and Robin. Nuthatches had returned to Dunham Park after an absence of over fifty years.

Another diligent observer was I. Whittaker whose book about the birds of Heywood district (1932) gave population estimates for several interesting species like Barn Owl and Common Sandpiper in the north of the County. The Tawny Owl was now breeding but like Wild in the south he never observed a Crow. No Linnets, Goldfinches, Redpolls or Bullfinches were breeding, a hollow tribute to the bird-catchers craft. Stock Doves outnumbered Woodpigeons and in the Ashworth area nested in 'almost every mill-chimney and derelict building as well as the cliffs'. The overall picture he gives of the uplands is of a much richer area than we find today.

1950's
This was the period when the town environment started to improve rapidly particularly with Clean Air legislation. The most important descriptions of our bird-life in this period are from the Leigh area by Edmondson. He described areas generally low in natural beauty as conventionally comprehended in landscape terms, but rich in interesting birds. The rise and fall of a Stonechat colony, Wheatears on embankments, the tribulations of waterfowl in a highly vandalised environment. These included nesting of Garganey, Shoveler and possibly Wigeon and the first Tufted Ducks at Astley in 1951. A thorough search for Goldfinches led to the supposition that they probably were breeding by 1954 (in Worsley) as possibly were Bullfinches. The breeding population of a slag-heap at Astley was Pied and Yellow Wagtail, Common Sandpiper, Lapwing, Mallard, Redpoll, Willow Warbler, Partridge, Skylark and Meadow Pipit. The ever-developing vegetation of the Flashes had their first Reed Warblers recorded but the House Martin was just a bird of passage. This absence has been confirmed by R. Yates and its increase is a notable result of the improved environment.

And finally the paragraph copied below, which may be as relevant today as it was at the time in 1984 when it was written?


It is noteworthy that the improvement of the habitat in 'towns' has been occurring at the same time that the parts of the 'countryside' dominated by industrial agriculture have been deteriorating seriously and it is sometimes more profitable now to spend a day birdwatching in Greater Manchester than in many less populated areas.

---

Bill,

I was all too aware of what you have reproduced here, which is why I said in my initial post 'not too historically'. The 1950's were 50 to 60 years ago. Things during the 80's - 90's were far better than today. Absolutely no doubt.

-- Edited by Andy Bissitt on Saturday 15th of June 2013 10:30:36 PM

Has the past always been better for birds? Do we look at birds in historical times through rose-tinted glasses? A look at our last breeding birds atlas publication - "Breeding Birds In Greater Manchester" by Holland, Spence and Sutton makes for interesting reading and the realisation that there always have been up and downs for many species; many of these ups and downs directly the result of man's influence upon and interference with the environment at that particular time. I hope I'm not breaching any copyright law by giving full credit to the above publication and acknowledgements to its authors whilst copying directly below a few random sections which may be of interest.

Bill.


1905-13
A depressed state of the bird-life in the towns may be inferred from Stubbs' descriptions of Oldham's birds (1905,1912). There had been no House Martins since 1895, Swifts were uncommon and he defined a resident species as follows:- 'a resident bird can always be recognised by the dirty condition of its plumage'. Outside the towns there was a marked improvement and Stubbs gave a thorough account of all the species which were seen within a ten-mile radius of Oldham. The Whinchat, Sedge Warbler and Yellowhammer were all common. The Nightjar was nesting at Swineshaw, Chew Valley, Wharmton and Denshaw with Stonechats nearby. However the Long-tailed Tit, Coal Tit, Goldfinch and Crow were scarce visitors and not present in the breeding season. The only owls recorded as breeding were Tawny Owls which although restricted to Longdendale were thought to be getting commoner. The Sparrowhawk was common, the Merlin bred regularly on almost all the moors and he had 'often seen Kestrels pursue and capture birds but never a mammal'. Like Blackwall in 1822 he noted that Cuckoos only parasitised Meadow Pipits although there were plenty of Tree Pipits about. The Woodpigeon was only recorded as nesting at Hopwood, Greenfield and Longdendale, in well-wooded areas.
A list of birds of the Rochdale area (Lord 1913) gives a picture consistent with that of Stubbs for the north east sector of the present GMC.
The southern edge was incorporated at that time into Cheshire which was described by Coward and Oldham (1910). Coward lived within today's Greater Manchester and many of their observations were for our area:- the Common Sandpiper nested between Stockport and the Mersey's confluence with the Irwell, Whinchats were abundant along the Mersey Valley. There were no Nuthatches in North Cheshire but the Redstart was increasing with a dozen in Dunham Park.
In another book Coward (1922) gives a fantastic description of the transition of Carrington Moss from a grouse moor through a dump for Manchester's spoil to agricultural land where Corn Bunting had replaced the Twite, and Partridges had replaced Grouse.

1930's
With the formation of the British Trust for Ornithology in 1933 an era of quantitative ornithology began and from then on more detailed statements on changes in bird populations are possible. Manchester University Museum has boxfiles which include detailed notes made by S. V. Wild in an area in the south of the county covering a triangle from Brooklands station to Ringway to Altrincham. Apart from exceptionally common species like Sparrows he noted every observation and several useful counts of birds were made. In particular he organised the 1932 Barn Owl census in the Altrincham area; in 1937 he counted Yellowhammers; and in 1939 and 1940 he counted Willow Warblers and Whitethroats.
Species which were not encountered much were Bullfinch (none recorded between 1931 and 1944), Crow (none until 1943), Goldfinch (only 1939) and Jay (only 1939). The Magpie was reported in 1930 as 'while not very common it is probable that odd pairs may nest'. The common birds were Chaffinch (though not so common as Greenfinch), Yellowhammer, Whitethroat, Skylark and Yellow Wagtail as well as those still common today e.g. Blackbird and Robin. Nuthatches had returned to Dunham Park after an absence of over fifty years.

Another diligent observer was I. Whittaker whose book about the birds of Heywood district (1932) gave population estimates for several interesting species like Barn Owl and Common Sandpiper in the north of the County. The Tawny Owl was now breeding but like Wild in the south he never observed a Crow. No Linnets, Goldfinches, Redpolls or Bullfinches were breeding, a hollow tribute to the bird-catchers craft. Stock Doves outnumbered Woodpigeons and in the Ashworth area nested in 'almost every mill-chimney and derelict building as well as the cliffs'. The overall picture he gives of the uplands is of a much richer area than we find today.

1950's
This was the period when the town environment started to improve rapidly particularly with Clean Air legislation. The most important descriptions of our bird-life in this period are from the Leigh area by Edmondson. He described areas generally low in natural beauty as conventionally comprehended in landscape terms, but rich in interesting birds. The rise and fall of a Stonechat colony, Wheatears on embankments, the tribulations of waterfowl in a highly vandalised environment. These included nesting of Garganey, Shoveler and possibly Wigeon and the first Tufted Ducks at Astley in 1951. A thorough search for Goldfinches led to the supposition that they probably were breeding by 1954 (in Worsley) as possibly were Bullfinches. The breeding population of a slag-heap at Astley was Pied and Yellow Wagtail, Common Sandpiper, Lapwing, Mallard, Redpoll, Willow Warbler, Partridge, Skylark and Meadow Pipit. The ever-developing vegetation of the Flashes had their first Reed Warblers recorded but the House Martin was just a bird of passage. This absence has been confirmed by R. Yates and its increase is a notable result of the improved environment.

And finally the paragraph copied below, which may be as relevant today as it was at the time in 1984 when it was written?


It is noteworthy that the improvement of the habitat in 'towns' has been occurring at the same time that the parts of the 'countryside' dominated by industrial agriculture have been deteriorating seriously and it is sometimes more profitable now to spend a day birdwatching in Greater Manchester than in many less populated areas.

Rumworth seems to be bucking the trend for breeding Lapwings. It's been the best year for a long time.

Andy Bissitt wrote:

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And I'd forgotten about swallows!! Usually one migrant that you can rely on, but certainly missing from many of my stomping grounds this year. And don't even start me on rarities. The chances of seeing anything to set the pulse racing in our county diminish by the year. Anyone for stamp collecting?

---

I had swallows still coming in off the sea at south stack this week, 2 months late ,these were obviously migrants firing through north, by the time they get there they will be coming back. Everywhere I am visiting is lacking in summer visitors. Lesser whitethroats, Sedge Warbler, Willow Warbler, Chiffchaff, Whinchat, etc are either well down in number or missing altogether, and butterflies and dragonflies almost none existant, we were commenting at penny yesterday how the thousands of swifts, must be in difficulty even finding enough food for them selves never mind any young, its definitely a year that we will remember for the wrong reasons.

And I'd forgotten about swallows!! Usually one migrant that you can rely on, but certainly missing from many of my stomping grounds this year. And don't even start me on rarities. The chances of seeing anything to set the pulse racing in our county diminish by the year. Anyone for stamp collecting?

Just to be controversial, I'll sit somewhere in the middle.

Over the last week, whilst walking round my local patch I too have noticed a dearth in some things, particularly insects. Even in the pleasantly warm sunshine, no bees, only one or two butterflies, no hover flies (and pleasantly no cleggs yet). Worrying for numerous reasons. But, I never cease to be amazed by natures resilience, and after seeing several long tailed tit broods, and having more Whitethroats on territory than I can remember I am not totally despondent. There's always a lag between prey numbers declining and peaking and their predator numbers. We may have had a couple of poor years, but hopefully it will be an improving picture. Nature has been dealing with floods and cold springs longer than we've been around. Although I admit, us being around is something that's only making it more difficult.

I,m going to disagree with some of your points Andy. thinking back when I was a kid, nearly everyone collected eggs, Air rifles couldd be bought from catalogs, half the kids I knew had them and shot at everything, we had blokes regulary walking through the local woods with shotguns. it was common to see stray dogs in packs hunting. The rivers were completely polluted. we now have Peregrines, Sparrowhawks, Buzzards, Ravens, Kingfishers, Dippers, Rabbits , Foxes and Roe Deer, Kids today have never had it so easy

Oh no. Not another doom and gloom post from me! Fraid so. Quite a few wildlife commentators called last Summer's wet and cool weather the 'tipping point' for the U.K's wildlife, and from reading many a posting on this website in combination with my own experiences this year, I think we have to come to terms with the fact that it has come to pass. I have gone to the usual places this spring and summer at more or less the same times as in previous years, and so far have failed to make the normal casual sightings of the following species:- garden warbler, lesser whitethroat, hobby and whinchat, seen very few house martins, and less than the usual number of swifts. As for 'old favourites' like spotted flycatcher, redstart, pied flycatcher and wood warbler - well, I think I can forget about ever seeing them again in the county (without making a special trip). It has also become apparent that the estate where I live has lost its bats (for the first time in 27 years), and its tawny owls. Moths are at very low densities, and butterflies likewise. A temporary blip? I very much doubt it. How many species can we point at in Greater Manchester which, once lost (not too historically), have made a noticeable comeback? There would have to be an enormous increase in the population of many kinds of wild creatures outside the county for us ever to be recolonised. Even then, will we still have the habitat to support healthy numbers when it is still being whittled away? Taking the 'Four Yorkshiremen' sketch in reverse, I think we can turn to the younger birdwatchers amongst us and say about the 'old days', "Well, of course, we had it easy". If I was trying to get 'into' the hobby now, I think I would very quickly get bored and drift away. We had it all, and we've blown it.