you are of course right that we should be cautious in judging, well anything really, without firm, carefully considered and well researched information and data but often, I wouldn't call it particularly scientific. Work on the range expansion of species is more often done by 'normal' birders, who whilst their work might appear scientific wouldn't class it or themselves as such. As someone with a keen eye on all things identification, so is work on pushing the envelope on that.
The fact is that Hobbys are expanding their range in the UK, to 'shift' their range would imply they had left one area for another.
I never suggested that they were indeed "shifting" just suggesting that there are always other possibilities to rule out - that is all we can do, rule out one hypothesis at a time until we are left with no other possibility (a la Sherlock Holmes).
I admire the work that all "normal" birders and recorders do - i would just advise against anyone drawing conclusions from singular observations, which I see and hear a lot of in my work, it was a comment that applies to the state of the nations scientific education also. Proper scientific method is neglected somewhat to squeeze in extra content and exam practise. Don't get me started on the media(not all) and the way they sometimes report scientific findings!
- what we can do though is offer some evidence based on observations and open it up to discussion and eventually it may become subject to a "proper" study...
Ian McKerchar said
Tue Jul 7 12:22 PM, 2009
you are of course right that we should be cautious in judging, well anything really, without firm, carefully considered and well researched information and data but often, I wouldn't call it particularly scientific. Work on the range expansion of species is more often done by 'normal' birders, who whilst their work might appear scientific wouldn't class it or themselves as such. As someone with a keen eye on all things identification, so is work on pushing the envelope on that.
The fact is that Hobbys are expanding their range in the UK, to 'shift' their range would imply they had left one area for another.
paul brady said
Tue Jul 7 11:21 AM, 2009
Tony Coatsworth wrote:
The experts also say numbers have dwindled but a friend of mine saw 20+ at Lakenheath a few weeks ago.
Last week I saw 2 at Coombe Hill Meadows (near Gloucester) and 1 at Slimbridge - I'd never seen any before in about 10 years of birding down there so they are definitely expanding in range.
I'm not saying that the "experts" are correct as I've not looked into it but surely YOU cannot possibly extrapolate your sightings and apply them country wide!
This is what causes so many problems and misguided opinions people do not have the scientific skills to be able to make judgements on research, observations etc. They just see something once or twice and then inexplicably extrapolate those events to a much wider range - have you not heard of fair and unbiased/random sampling?
There can be other explanations for your observation e.g. the hobbies have not expanded their range but have just shifted it.
Tony Coatsworth said
Sat Jul 4 8:50 AM, 2009
The experts also say numbers have dwindled but a friend of mine saw 20+ at Lakenheath a few weeks ago.
Last week I saw 2 at Coombe Hill Meadows (near Gloucester) and 1 at Slimbridge - I'd never seen any before in about 10 years of birding down there so they are definitely expanding in range.
Rob Thorpe said
Thu Jul 2 11:04 PM, 2009
j meadows wrote:
Geoff Like the comment from the Experts That it was incredibly rare to catch sight of a Hobby in daylight
Jimmy
That must be why I can't seem to find one at the flashes this year, I need to get down there after dark
Jimmy Meadows said
Thu Jul 2 10:19 PM, 2009
Geoff Like the comment from the Experts That it was incredibly rare to catch sight of a Hobby in daylight
Jimmy
Geoff Hargreaves said
Thu Jul 2 10:05 PM, 2009
Just click on robs 'here' link to see some cracking pictures of the event,the quote,s attached will make you cringe though.
I'm not sure how to make the above address "clickable" so it goes staight to the web site - perhaps someone else can do that to make it easier for folk to see these fantastic pictures. I just copied and pasted the really long address into Google to get there.
-- Edited by sid ashton on Thursday 2nd of July 2009 05:39:45 PM
I never suggested that they were indeed "shifting" just suggesting that there are always other possibilities to rule out - that is all we can do, rule out one hypothesis at a time until we are left with no other possibility (a la Sherlock Holmes).
I admire the work that all "normal" birders and recorders do - i would just advise against anyone drawing conclusions from singular observations, which I see and hear a lot of in my work, it was a comment that applies to the state of the nations scientific education also. Proper scientific method is neglected somewhat to squeeze in extra content and exam practise. Don't get me started on the media(not all) and the way they sometimes report scientific findings!
- what we can do though is offer some evidence based on observations and open it up to discussion and eventually it may become subject to a "proper" study...
you are of course right that we should be cautious in judging, well anything really, without firm, carefully considered and well researched information and data but often, I wouldn't call it particularly scientific. Work on the range expansion of species is more often done by 'normal' birders, who whilst their work might appear scientific wouldn't class it or themselves as such. As someone with a keen eye on all things identification, so is work on pushing the envelope on that.
The fact is that Hobbys are expanding their range in the UK, to 'shift' their range would imply they had left one area for another.
I'm not saying that the "experts" are correct as I've not looked into it but surely YOU cannot possibly extrapolate your sightings and apply them country wide!
This is what causes so many problems and misguided opinions people do not have the scientific skills to be able to make judgements on research, observations etc. They just see something once or twice and then inexplicably extrapolate those events to a much wider range - have you not heard of fair and unbiased/random sampling?
There can be other explanations for your observation e.g. the hobbies have not expanded their range but have just shifted it.
Last week I saw 2 at Coombe Hill Meadows (near Gloucester) and 1 at Slimbridge - I'd never seen any before in about 10 years of birding down there so they are definitely expanding in range.
That must be why I can't seem to find one at the flashes this year, I need to get down there after dark
Like the comment from the Experts That it was incredibly rare to catch sight of a Hobby in daylight
Jimmy
cheers geoff
Click HERE
-- Edited by Rob Thorpe on Thursday 2nd of July 2009 05:53:00 PM
For those who haven't seen the pictures of a Hobby "interacting" with a Swift take a look at:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196206/Pictured-The-incredibly-rare-moment-hobby-falcon-wrestles-prey-mid-flight.html
I'm not sure how to make the above address "clickable" so it goes staight to the web site - perhaps someone else can do that to make it easier for folk to see these fantastic pictures. I just copied and pasted the really long address into Google to get there.
-- Edited by sid ashton on Thursday 2nd of July 2009 05:39:45 PM